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 SOLAR ACTIVITY UPDATE: Departing Sunspot/M5.9-Flare/CME(June 9th, 2013).

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PostSubject: SOLAR ACTIVITY UPDATE: Departing Sunspot/M5.9-Flare/CME(June 9th, 2013).   Sun Jun 09, 2013 3:40 pm

SOLAR ACTIVITY UPDATE: Departing Sunspot/M5.9-Flare/CME(June 9th, 2013).






Filed under: Earth Watch Report, Global Disaster Watch, Solar Activity — Leave a comment

June 9, 2013





Skyywatcher88

Published on Jun 8, 2013


M-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: At the end of the day on
June 7th (2249 UT) departing sunspot AR1762 unleashed a strong
M5.9-class solar flare. Because of the sunspot’s location on the sun’s
southwestern limb, the blast was not particulary geoeffective.
X-radiation from the flare ionized Earth’s upper atmosphere, but only
briefly, while a CME that flew away from the blast site is expected to
miss our planet entirely.

******************************************************************************


STORM WARNING:
NOAA estimates a 60% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on June 9th
when a CME is expected to deliver a glancing blow to Earth’s magnetic
field. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras

*********************************************************************************


NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center


Latest GOES Solar X-ray Image
NOAA Scales Activity



Range 1 (minor) to 5 (extreme)

NOAA Scale

Past 24 hours

Current
Geomagnetic Storms *

Solar Radiation Storms

Radio Blackouts





Satellite Environment Plot

GOES Solar X-ray Flux
*******************************************************************************


SIDC Ursigram


3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity. SIDC (RWC-Belgium) Daily Encoded data (ISES) SIDC Ursigram meu FormatMail headerSIDC code

Source
Frequency

:Issued: 2013 Jun 08 1247 UTC
roduct: documentation
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #
# (RWC Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 30608
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 08 Jun 2013, 1206UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 08 Jun 2013 until 10 Jun 2013)
SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Jun 2013 10CM FLUX: 109 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Jun 2013 10CM FLUX: 108 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Jun 2013 10CM FLUX: 106 / AP: 008
COMMENT:Solar activity is low, with only three C-class flares and one
M-class flare
detected in last 24 hours. The M5.9 flare peaking at 22:49 UT on June 07
originated from the Catania sunspot group 96 (NOAA AR 1765) situated at
that moment at the west solar limb, and was associated with a CME. From the
currently available data it seems that the bulk of the CME mass was
directed mostly southward of the Sun-Earth line and it is therefore not
probable that the CME will arrive at the Earth. Fast growing Catania
sunspot group 96 (NOAA AR 1765) which currently has beta-gamma
configurations of its photospheric magnetic field, has a significant
potential to produce a C-class flares, and possibly also M-class flares.
The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 4 nT, and the solar
wind speed is currently 450 km/s. The arrival of the fast flow from the
small equatorial coronal hole is expected today without significant
geomagnetic impact. A CME-driven shock wave associated with the M1.3 flare
on June 05, might be expected on June 09 producing at most unsettled
geomagnetic conditions. We expect quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions
during following 48 hours.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 017, BASED ON 16 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 07 Jun 2013
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 066
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 110
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 021
AK WINGST : 025
ESTIMATED AP : 033
ESTIMATED ISN : 032, BASED ON 21 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
07 2211 2249 2304 ////// M5.9 92/1762 VI/1
END**********************************************************************

Thanks to: http://familysurvivalprotocol.com


  

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