Posted on September 11, 2014 by RonMamita — 3 Comments
There have been many warning signs that the Scottish separation was something to take seriously.
Cameron’s job as Prime Minister is on the line if Scots vote on Sept. 18, 2014 to secede.
This is Not an Isolated phenomena. People in all regions are pulling away from authoritative rule with grassroots movements.
States and counties in the United States of America have movements to Secede, regions in the European Union have movements to secede as well and Crimea left the Ukraine…
Scottish Vote Scares London
Excerpts from ArmstrongEconomics.com 9 Sept 2014
The British financial markets tumbled on Monday after an opinion poll showed for the first time this year that Scots may vote for independence in a referendum next week on the 18th, breaking up the United Kingdom that was first joined in 1707.
The latest poll has sent a shock-wave that is bordering on the verge of a panic among Britain’s ruling elite. The chart pattern of the pound looks like a Waterfall Event. Prime Minister David Cameron’s Conservative-led government is now suddenly promising proposals this week to grant Scotland greater autonomy if it stays. All the pundits had said we were wrong and there was no support in Scotland for such a separation.
This is the chart we showed at the Berlin Conference illustrating the rising separatist movements. This is part of the Cycle or War model. Sorry, but this is the civil unrest rising as we have warned that such trends are driven by economics. Turn down the economy and this is what you get.
Cameron is clueless as he still tries to dance with the EU. Now with just eight months before a national election planned for May 2015, which will be yet another surprise, Cameron said that the government was not making contingency plans for the possibility of Scottish independence in a vain attempt to say it will not happen. Yet the masses are stirring and politicians fail to grasp that the world economy is imploding and the forms of insane governments with perpetual borrowing that has no intent of paying anything back just cannot continue forever.
Sterling fell more than 1% scoring its biggest one-day drop in 13 months, This should be expected for the markets are reacting more to uncertainty than reality. When the pound would not join the euro, the pundits sold the pound and claimed it would fall out of bed and the euro would be king. We got called in to get major companies out of short positions on the pound when it rallied.
Once again the analysts are writing off Scotland warning it will be a huge short if it leaves Britain and the UK. But frankly, once again we see the opposite. The Scots are conservative and this is where economics was born. Virtually every bank has been warning investors outlining the risks to the U.K. economy and European unity of Scottish independence. But nobody addresses the risks to remaining in the UK and the collapse of the EU. They do not even contemplate such a scenario.
Sorry, the Unionists claim it’s ’Better Together’ campaign but cannot articulate the risks of remaining with the EU. Nevertheless, after months of polls showing nationalists/separatists heading for a certain defeat, the survey by the YouGov pollster raised the real prospect that secessionists could achieve their goal of breaking the 307-year-old union with England that would actually complete a 309.6 year cycle.
The current polls indicate Scots have been bothered by a perceived scare campaign launched by unionists that effectively tell the Scots they are second-rate people incapable of self-rule. The pro-independence Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond appeared much stronger than Darling in a television debate on August 25.
Britain is going to have to choose between a failed EU or the UK. The Scots are forcing this upon the whole of Britain.
More from Armstrong Economics:
Scotland – A Brave Heart Moment – FREEDOM
Scotland has an amazing history. I have many friends there and I have been well aware of the efforts that have been underway. The Nationalists have been using scare tactics but have completely ignored the consequences of failing to get out of the EU. It appears that Scotland can emerge as a safe haven for capital and I would be willing to help in every way possible to reverse the tide.
Not only is Scotland the home of Adam Smith and modern economics, but it was the birth place of pension funds as well – that were of course funded in those days (Scottish Windows). Scotland has a chance to actually compete against London and become the REAL Switzerland of Europe if it has the courage to stand up to the collapsing economic situation and provide the real stability that capital is seeking.
The Nationalists played on those who live off the State. They ignored those who are taxed by the State. There must be some re-balancing, but I agree, they must reverse the tax burden. Abandon VAT for starters and replace it with a simple sales tax. That will reduce the costs tremendously and cut the cost of government with the endless paper-pushers.
We will see. Scotland can stand on its own – the days of Edward I are long-gone. It is time to appreciate what Scotland has given the world.
Below is more on Scotland from Armstrong Economics:
Scottish Chaos? Should I Stay or Should I go?
Posted on September 9, 2014 by Martin Armstrong
It is very interesting to see the numerous emails pouring in from Scotland and England. Even in Scotland there is a strong left-wing socialist factor that has their hand out to whom Cameron is trying to persuade to stay in the UK and they will be rewarded. For the benefit of both England and Scotland, a separation would be fantastic if Scotland took the high road here. If Scotland lowered its taxes including VAT, this will put pressure on England.
Moreover, it has been argued that Scotland costs the British more than they get back. The Government Expenditure and Review Scotland (GERS) calculates how much money is raised through taxes in Scotland and the level of public spending north of the border. The Scottish nationalists argue the number are erroneous. However, the numbers appear to be fairly trustworthy. The GERS figures, for the financial year 2008/09, show that the Treasury spent about £54 billion on Scotland and only received £43.5 billion in revenue.
The Brits believe that the Scots do not pull their own weight. However, there is the question of a very important asset – the North Sea oil. Most of the United Kingdom’s fossil fuel lies off the coast of Scotland – not England. Therefore, the wealth the North Sea Oil generates should arguably be added to figures for total revenue from Scotland that England does not count. This introduces a whole string of important questions if there is a separation. Will this natural resource be returned to an independent Scotland?
Detailed research of the money brought in by the UK oil and gas fields suggests that Scottish waters – defined by the line of demarcation used in the fishing industry – accounted for 91.1 per cent of UK North Sea revenue in 2008/09. This would imply the North Sea Oil reserves belong to Scotland – not England. This further suggests that the reserves of Scotland will add a contribution to Treasury coffers by £11.7 billion, wiping out the £10.5bn deficit and leaving Scotland in the black to the tune of £1.3bn. Of course there will be some volatility. Nevertheless, this is a very interesting aspect.
It’s without question that Scotland would survive as one nation and have reasonable performance. It may even have the LOWEST national debt than anyone in Europe and this is not being factored in to the confidence Scotland would gather in an economic crisis. We input what-ifs into Socrates. It actually supported that the pound could call to new lows and break par with the dollar. Scotland could issue its own pound and if it were to set the standard for the world abandoning state borrowing, the currency could set the pace for others to follow.
Loss of the North Sea oilfields would mean George Osborne would never be able to reap the benefit of a windfall tax on the North Sea operators like the one introduced in the last Budget. Scottish Independence could be the straw that forces reform in Britain. Most of the UK’s renewable energy resources like sites for wind and wave power stations are also in Scotland, so the potential market for exported electricity would be out of Whitehall’s hands as well. When you break everything down, Scotland could stand on its own very nicely. England has gotten the better end of the bargain when everything is considered.
Then there is the financial services industry, which generates between 7 billion and 9 billion pounds ($11 billion to $14 billion) and directly employs around 100,000 people, according to the Scottish Financial Enterprise (SFE), which is an independent body representing Scotland’s financial industry.
The Scottish banking industry accounts for 13% of all banking employment in the UK. The Royal Bank of Scotland, Bank of Scotland, part of Lloyds Banking Group, and Clydesdale Bank are all permitted to print banknotes, a practice that dates back as far as 1695. Scotland has also the world’s oldest professional body for practicing bankers since 1875.
The UK insurance industry is the third-largest in the world and the largest in Europe, employing 320,000 people. However, the Scottish insurance industry may account for one-third. Life and pension fund managers are among the leading industry employers in Scotland.
There are at least 500 funds managing money in Scotland, excluding investment trusts and exchange-traded funds. Assets managed in Scotland were estimated at 560 billion pounds in 2013, 11% of the UK’s total 5 trillion pounds, according to the Investment Management Association. If the EU goes through with its tax on financial transactions, Scotland could really score big in this game staying out of the UK and EU.
Thanks to: http://ronmamita.wordpress.com