Posted on February 11, 2014 by The Doc
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The United States is fast racking up characteristics of a Third World nation. Its finances are Third World. Its president is Third World. Its banking integrity is Third World. Its absent industry is Third World. Its decaying cities are Third World. It urgently begs for a Third World currency, but that is soon to be remedied. The nation has been a freeloader on the global reserve currency for too long.
That is about to end.
From Jim Willie, GoldenJackass.com
Given its wretched fundamentals, it earns the name of Scheiss Dollar. Those familiar with the German language recognize it as the Shit Dollar. It will be stowed high in transit, true to the colonial application of shipping manure that gave off gas. S.H.I.T. was a warning to beware of gas explosions from lanterns on ships transporting the fertilizer agent. The current USDollar is not just giving off excess gas for global banking system flatulence. Its gas has produced vast insolvency in the banking systems of many nations. The air pockets in circulatory systems have caused widespread cardiac arrest. The higher cost structure, primarily felt in food prices and energy prices, but also in material prices, has resulted in diminished profitability and a ruinous retirement of capital. The capital destruction must be halted, going hand in hand with global recession. Foreign nations demand a new solution and quickly. Thus the Global Currency Reset, within which the new Scheiss Dollar will be launched.
INSURMOUNTABLE PRESSURES BUILD
As the world moves away from the USDollar, it will avoid the USTreasury Bond in banking reserve function. The world will settle trade outside the USDollar on a rapidly growing basis. The result will be a shock to the USeconomy with fast rising prices. Alternative systems will move toward other currencies in trade settlement, like the Chinese Yuan and Gold bullion. The USFed will compensate by printing money to cover the USTBond selloff, dumping, divestiture, and indirect exchange. Only when the foreign suppliers do not want USDollars will the problem hit the United States like a financial hurricane.
The USFed response will trigger two events: a separate dollar from a split, and the ravage of price inflation. Not monetary inflation but rather a currency crisis will slam the United States. Powerful dynamics inside the United States and outside the United States will result in split birth of a new Scheiss Dollar for domestic usage, but also a flood of foreign USDollars converted to Gold bullion. The Scheiss Dollar will suffer from a sequence of devaluations. The conversion of USTBonds and other sovereign bonds to gold will gain momentum to change the face of the world. The Gold Standard lies directly ahead. In fact, the Global Currency Reset has a more appropriate name in the Return to the Gold Standard.
The pressures internal and external to the United States will force drastic action. The USGovt must defend against a growing tide of USTreasury Bond dumping and absent demand for USTreasury Bonds, both hitting simultaneously. The USFed cannot solve the imbalance and fill the gaps, by means of endless monetary hyper inflation. The USGovt must make a new Domestic Dollar, and devalue it in order to assure supply to the import dependent USEconomy. Neither the financial so-called experts nor the US maestros will not anticipate how deeply they will have to devalue the New Scheiss Dollar. The Jackass estimates between 50% and 60% in at least two steps, probably more. The result will be well over 100% price inflation. See Venezuela for an example that made up for two decades of abuse. Also, the US maestros have misjudged the oil supply from the Bakken region, misjudged the natural gas supply from Shale projects, while contaminating the US-based water supply table.
The USFed must halt its hyper monetary inflation, since it is wrecking the global financial markets and ruining capital on a grand scale. No more can the central bank cover the sold and dumped USTreasury Bonds with newly printed money. So they lie about tapering, after a failed experiment last year. The QE volume is increasing, not decreasing. Monetary inflation is a cancer, always has been, always will be. To call it the New Normal is national suicide. The three years of QE bond monetization have created the high pressure factor in the massive vortex. As the global trade is settled more outside the USDollar, far fewer USTreasury Bonds will be accumulated by foreign trade players. In fact, a whirlwind of USTBonds will be sold off during a grand divestiture, often called diversification. As the USDollar goes out of favor in trade, the United States will have a tremendous new challenge.
Being a massive importer, the USEconomy must find a means of paying for the huge volume of incoming supply. This is precisely how the USDollar will undergo its crisis. Events will go out of control. The USGovt must find a way to devalue its USDollar currency, and stop printing new USDollars. During the next chapter, foreigners will begin refusing USD in trade while selling its USTBond shelves from their banking systems. The sales dump will form the low pressure factor of the massive vortex. The hurricane is gathering force from the high pressure of central bank monetary growth, combined simultaneously with the low pressure of foreign dumping. Add to the intense pressures the economic damage from capital destruction, which raises sovereign government deficits that must be financed.
VICIOUS CYCLE & DOWNWARD SPIRAL
The USFed response will be to print money to cover the sales of USTBonds, but done with a discount which has already begun in force. The debasement of the USD from rampant money supply growth will exacerbate the situation. Foreign USTBond holders will rush to sell more, thus fueling the downward spiral. The USFed will print even more money to compensate in the bond monetization, probably done in hidden fashion to hide the monstrous QE volume increase. Then comes the full blown currency crisis, which in my view will result in a currency split. The USGovt with its USFed masters will decide to split the currency. They will tell the foreigners that the external USDollars retain value, but a new Scheiss Dollar (aka Shit Dollar) will be distributed in order to pay for imports from foreign suppliers. It will be devaluated, in order to encourage its acceptance and to assure incoming supply. The foreign USTBond selling will slow down, and even halt, only when the USFed promises to redeem with original USTBonds in cash. The foreigners will use the cash to buy other major currencies and Gold Bullion, and certainly not swap into the new Republic Shit Dollar.
The Chinese will take control of the Federal Reserve, and assume responsibility for management of foreign held USDollars, with some assistance by the Intl Monetary Fund. The IMF already has a Chinese dominance. The USDept Treasury late last year took back control of certain USDollar responsibility. Doing so set the stage for launch of the Scheiss Dollar, while the Chinese had been busy with acquisition of the JPMorgan headquarters in South Manhattan. The split oversight has already taken root.
As the perception spreads like a virus that the new Scheiss Dollar will see deep devaluation on a repetitive basis, the torrent will be directed toward conversion of major nation sovereign bonds into Gold bullion. From 2009 to 2012 the PIGS took the headlines. Next the US, UK, and Japan will make headlines for trouble in sovereign bonds. As the perception spreads like a virus that the major currencies all suffer from the central bank debasement problem, the conversion of Euros, British Pounds, and Japanese Yen will all be directed toward Gold Bullion. Their sovereign bonds will undergo separate simultaneous crises, all perceived as toxic paper. The recognition of Gold Trade Settlement will be common, its practice born in a simultaneous stroke. The momentum into Gold Bullion will be staggering, secret, and robust, led by the BRICS Bank (aka Gold Trade Central Bank).
On the domestic front, the new split Scheiss Dollar will face a huge problem of its own. The USGovt deficits must be covered, and the foreigners will continue not to purchase the USTBonds. They already do not bid at USTreasury auctions. They already are shedding them en masse, as their divestitute continues like a rampaging storm. Marginal factors will dominate. The enormous new supply and absent demand within the US walls will result in severe devaluation. The USTreasury Bonds will offer a higher yield with a lower currency value, in order to attract foreign buyers again for its toxic Third World debt. Expect probably a devaluation of the Scheiss Dollar with a first sudden quantum step like 30% down. When it finally trades more freely like in the FOREX open market introduction, it should suffer another quantum step down. Such launch will be traumatic, loaded with shock, and begin the sweeping perception of Third World America in an outbreak of reality.
The loss of US industry will become a major point of discussion and debate, the focus on attracting it back. Harsh blame will be given for decisions to move industry to the Pacific Rim, then to China. More likely the open trading could result in 10% decline per month for a while, with ugly quantum jumps. In the end, the internal domestic newly split Scheiss Dollar could be devaluated by up to 70%. That is exactly what it deserves, in response to annual 1 $trillion government deficits, annual $400 to $500 billion trade deficits, a newly arrived higher Current Account Deficit from the global USTBond selloff, a grossly inadequate industrial base, wrecked financial markets, and deep corruption broadly across the top echelons, with a clear double standard in legal prosecution for $trillion crime. The symptoms are recognized as Third World. Commercial colonization will hit the US shores, a process also already begun.
INDIRECT EXCHANGE DUMPING OF USTBONDS
The indirect exchange concept will continue to accelerate. A quick review around the world can identify a wide range of locations for the discharge. The USTreasury Bonds are being used as currency by third parties (mostly China & Russia) to pay for large assets sales and energy purchases. The USGovt bonds are being dumped. A race will develop to convert the USTBonds before a final restructure writedown. In past Hat Trick Letter reports, some major Indirect Exchange routes had been identified. The biggest two were the Rosneft buyout of the British Petroleum stake in the TBK-BP huge Russian energy firm for $55 billion. The deal will see the Russians unloading those $billions in USTBonds, sent to London banks where they cannot be refused. The other large deal is to be the payment by China for Russian crude oil delivered via the vast network of Asian pipelines. The Chinese will pay the huge annual energy bill in USTBonds, a steady discharge.
The Indirect Exchange usage of USTBonds will contribute to the external pressure on the USDollar, from which the USGovt will be forced to ramp up the QE volume in bond monetization, and then split the USDollar for a domestic currency that is heavily devalued. The radical action will take place as the USD is dropped from global reserve status. Several creditor nations will follow suit in the Indirect Exchange movement, including Brazil, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore, South Korea, Luxembourg, Norway, and Ireland. The exchange of bonds will grow and become a global stampede, then a race to extract value before the USTreasury Bonds default and convert to 65 cents on the dollar during a Global Restructure Conference, with the USMilitary having a seat to ensure cooperation and compliance (with a smile). The Jackass forecast of a USGovt debt default made in late 2008 is slowly taking shape.
NO MORE USTREASURY BOND DEMAND
The overriding global message is that Russia & China are leading a movement across the entire East to dump the USTBond, to work toward alternative trade settlement, and to replace the USDollar in its key role as trade settlement medium and global reserve currency. A Global Paradigm Shift is in progress. Downward pressure in the USTreasury 10-year bond yield (TNX) will be seen in the poor economic results and application of the interest rate derivative machinery. Upward pressure in the TNX will be seen from the global USD/USTBond rejection and recognition of the USFed Taper Talk falsehood deception. The USFed is on course to lose all remaining credibility. Their prestige vanished with the introduction of the Quantitative Easing against the ZIRP zero bound rates. Five key important points dominate the global landscape like a gigantic billboard.
1) QE to Infinity is being recognized, the Taper Talk widely seen as a ruse and propaganda to defend the broken USDollar, another turn in the road.
2) The Geneva Iran Talks can be better described as the Petro-Dollar Surrender Talks, another turn in the road.
3) The Boyz might misjudge that the derivatives can prevent a powerful breakout above the critical 3.0% and toward the 3.7% target, as the London Whale incident was a turn in the road.
4) The Indirect Exchange seen in broad USTBond dumping is a new dangerous disruptive trend, yet another turn in the road.
5) The pension and bond funds as well as insurance sector demand higher bond yields for carry income, a breakdown coming.
PETRO-DOLLAR DEMISE & PETRO-GOLD RISE
The JPMorgan metal futures unit is actually included in a commodities sale, despite bank denials. The ploys continue to keep the ongoing gold price suppression active. One side attempts to comply with regulatory requirements, while the other side attempts to maintain gold inventory management scheme tied to deep gold market fraud. The JPM folks are liars to the end. The big bank is under siege by regulators who slowly grow teeth. Being revealed is the inter-relations with the brokerage business, like in providing credit.
Shadow warehouses are hoarding industrial metals, as the world’s metal is slipping into the shadows of a convenient system beyond regulation. The power centers slip away from the light as they attempt to retain control. Banks, hedge funds, commodity merchants, and other seamy firms (like offshore subsidiaries) are hiding tens of millions of tons of aluminum, copper, nickel, and zinc in a vast system of private warehouses. The network spans the globe. These facilities are known to some in the industry as shadow warehouses, since unregulated and not subject to disclosure. Their purpose is to operate outside the London Metal Exchange system of warehouses, their traditional home.
London and Frankfurt are way ahead in the Renminbi hub game. The Chinese Yuan currency trade will solidify the non-USDollar alternative movement. Great irony comes, since the final nail in the USDollar coffin will come from London, Frankfurt, and Switzerland, with their hands on the hammer. The Swiss business community is not enthusiastic at all about Yuan-based bond trading, as extreme competition has been sensed.
The Turkish Govt might be the casualty of a $119 billion Petro-Dollar loophole. The Great Silk Road is making a return, with gilded center stripes. An incredibly powerful reaction to the Iran sanctions has occurred, which should astonish analysts. Iran has biult a Petro-Gold highway out of necessity and expedience. Iran has brought the King Dollar to its knees. The Iran talks are about USDollar surrender, to assure no nuclear proliferation in its wake. The Geneva Iran Nuclear Talks should instead be called the Petro-Dollar Surrender Summit, as the Iran crime of selling energy outside the USD sphere has come full circle. The 21st century equivalent of the Great Silk Road is beginning to emerge. It has been constructed in the last year. The Iran workaround of the Iran sanctions has constructed the prototype of the Petro-Gold machinery. The rat has escaped the maze built by the USGovt and has wandered off the table.
The Petro-Dollar is being carted to the global cemetery, where war usually is triggered. Amazingly, the feisty maverick Iran has constructed the embryonic lanes for trade settlement in gold. The gold trade has long been at the center of controversial financial ties between Halkbank of Turkey and the oil ministry in Iran. Research conducted in May 2013 by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and Roubini Global Economics revealed the Halkbank exploited a golden loophole in the punitive extensive sanctions by the USGovt against the Iran regime. The ruse was the public declaration of design to curb Iran’s nuclear program. The reality was to halt energy sales outside the USDollar. Its detailed workings are as simple and elegant as they are powerful.
IRAN, TURKEY, INDIA HOLD THE CROWBAR
India has a long history of tremendous gold demand. The private citizens own between 20,000 and 30,000 tons, apart from the banking system. Together with China, the pedal is held to the metal on gold demand, which works to break the paper gold price suppression schemes. Turkey after all is a key pivot ally in the region, as will be seen in the Eurasian Trade Zone as well. At the same time, Turkey was playing a key role in US policy in Syria. Possibly, the USGovt wished to appease its own allies, who regarded the Iran sanctions as far too punitive not only to Iran, but also to Western European nations. It appears the US under the clumsy Obama hand lost on all fronts, a regular occurrence on the geopolitical stage. The man has the anti-Midas touch. Possibly, the compromise had more to do with coaxing Iran into signing a nuclear deal. There might have been an American olive branch extended to Iran via Turkey, done to persuade its leaders to continue back-channel negotiations with the United States, under other hidden agendas. Again though, the US is not on any winning side, since the Iran Talks are not about nuclear disarmament or dismantled weapons programs. The main nuclear topic in discussion at the Geneva-based Iran Talks is the usage of nuclear weapons by the United States in retaliation for abandoning the USDollar, a highly secretive table topic. The gain for the USGovt is the appearance of taking the high ground of diplomacy, while guilty of genocide in civilian killings in several war zones and of earth crimes in HAARP usage on earthquakes, hurricanes, and rainfall. The USGovt is playing an absurd end game strategy to save face as it falls into the Third World.
BIRTH OF PETRO-GOLD
The birth of the Petro-Gold trade will coincide with the birth of the Petro-Yuan, and later usher in the Gold Trade Settlement in full glory. It remains to be seen what the new gold-backed currencies will be, but they will arrive in a powerful stream, probably in direct response to a unmistakable systemic collapse that cannot be painted over in the financial press. The Saudis will find themselves scrambling to retain their plundered wealth, even to save their skins. They will return as very wealthy bedouins on the move, if they fail to make significant reforms at home.
What comes in the year 2014 will be amplified global USDollar rejection and widespread USTreasury Bond divestiture. It will cause fireworks aplenty. Russia will pull some strings in Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf. Expect Putin to use Dubai and China together with Iran to weaken the House of Saud, and possibly to knock them off their exploitative throne. Russian vengeance is coming very soon. Notice Putin and the Chinese president meeting numerous times during the Sochi Winter Olympics, taking advantage of the venue without Western leaders in the room. Russian tactics will likely force the Saudis to adopt certain financial devices on oil pricing. Their adoption will wreck the US relations, like massive lobs of grenades into the USTBond and Big Bank Stock windows. In 12 to 18 months, expect the House of Saud Royals will be on the run in Southern Europe, as in running for their lives from both Russian and HezBollah hit squads. The attack on the Saudis does not necessarily mean the fall of the House of Saud, only tremendous changes, concessions, maybe even public payouts.
EASTERN LINCHPIN NATIONS
Greece, Turkey, and Ukraine are critical linchpins, each with a critical pivotal role to plan in the global Paradigm Shift and in the development of the Eurasian Trade Zone. Many are the deceptions in the last couple years. To be sure, Cyprus might stay in the European Union, but it will keep a big window open to Russia with the GazpromBank. Then Greece will be a battleground for its energy pipeline access to Europe, perhaps the main reason why the EU continues to throw good money after bad in Athens. Then Turkey and Ukraine are critically important to tip the entire table East for the Eurasian Trade Zone. The Turkish gold routes will be extraordinarily important. The Ukraine energy pipeline routes will be extraordinarily important. The East can afford to lose Cyprus. The West is on the verge of losing Greece, which could be bought over the weekend by Russia with pocket change. But the East must have Turkey (for gold) and must have Ukraine (for energy) in the skeletal structure, as the paradigm shift continues to move and the trade zone takes form. It is interesting that the Bosporus Straits were crucial in ancient times, where fees were paid. Nowadays Turkey commands the NATO airbase and the gold trade routes.
WASHINGTON TOSSES SAUDIS UNDER THE BUS
China has begun to support the Arab states, making promises toward regional development and political stature. They must shmooze in order to create a fertile seedbed for the Petro-Yuan defacto standard to be born. Large projects and oil client relations over the last decade have helped. The new Persian Gulf protectorate role is being reshaped, slowly but surely. Arab monarchies eye stronger ties with China, and have conducted high level meetings. The Persian Gulf nations prepare for the Petro-Yuan. The Gulf Coop Council will serve as the platform for wider Chinese protectorate role. It will eventually usher in the Petro-Yuan Standard more formally, but only after more wine, more lamb, more deals, and more head nodding. Any strategic partnership between the Saudis and China means dumping WashingtonDC, simply put. The fallout will be tremendous.
As the United States embarks on a new path, with the Saudis perceived and painted at the extremists who discard the USDollar in favor of Asian devices, watch relations between the US and Iran warm slowly. The process has already begun. This point has been made by the Jackass in past analysis and interviews. Look for growing evidence that the USGovt will see Iran as a stability rock in the Persian Gulf after the Saudis piss on the US Embassy gates, after the Saudis discard the Petro-Dollar in favor of a tighter deal with Russian oil pricing and Chinese Yuan oil payments. Meanwhile, the Saudis are being painted with a nasty ugly new brush by the USGovt and its dutiful press like the New York Times. The Saudis will be forced to apply the crowbar that collapses the very Petro-Dollar that the kingdom has depended upon for 40 years to plunder their nation. The great divestiture of the Saudi USTreasury Bonds will take place while London and New York bankers continue to rehypothecate (steal) Saudi gold. All the Saudi gold outside their nation will disappear. Most Saudi gold has already been stolen. In the aftermath, no nation on earth will trust the Americans and British, who will have tossed the Saudis under the bus and stolen their gold. As WashingtonDC paints the Saudis as terrorists, watch the royals reveal who really took the lead role on 911.
THE HAT TRICK LETTER PROFITS IN THE CURRENT CRISIS.
From subscribers and readers:
At least 30 recently on correct forecasts regarding the bailout parade, numerous nationalization deals such as for Fannie Mae and the grand Mortgage Rescue.
“Jim Willie is a gift to our age who is the only clear voice sounding the alarm of the extreme financial crisis facing the Western nations. He has unique skills of unbiased analysis with synthesis of information from his valuable sources. Since 2007, he has made over 17 correct forecast calls, each at least a year ahead of time. If you read his work or listen to his interviews, you will see what has been happening, know what to expect, and know what to do.”
(Charles in New Mexico)
“I commend the Jackass for being the most accurate of all newsletter writers. Others called for the big move in Gold right away, but you understand that the enormous fraud in the system needs to play out before free market forces can begin to assert themselves. You seem to have the best sources and insights into the soap opera that is our global financial system. Most importantly, you have advised readers to be patient, stay safe, and avoid mining shares like the plague. Calling the top in the USTreasury Bond (10-yr yield at 1.4% yield) stands out as a recent fine accomplishment. The Jackass understands the markets, understands the fraud, and also has the sources to keep him the most up-to-date on the big geopolitical and financial events and scandals. Few or no other writers have all three of these resources.”
(Austin in California)
“A Paradigm change is occurring for sure. Your reports and analysis are historic documents, allowing future generations to have an accurate account of what and why things went wrong so badly. There is no other written account that strings things along on the timeline, as your writings do. I share them with a handful of incredibly influential people whose decisions are greatly impacted by having the information in the Jackass format. The system is coming apart on such a mega scale that it is difficult to wrap one’s head around where all this will end. But then, the universe strives for equilibrium and all will eventually balance out.”
(The Voice, a European gold trader source)
Jim Willie CB is a statistical analyst in marketing research and retail forecasting. He holds a PhD in Statistics. His career has stretched over 25 years. He aspires to thrive in the financial editor world, unencumbered by the limitations of economic credentials. Visit his free website to find articles from topflight authors at www.GoldenJackass.com. For personal questions about subscriptions, contact him at JimWillieCB@aol.com
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